Europe in search of a new strategy for energy security
In response to the political crisis in Ukraine and the threat of compromising the stability of energy supplies to the EU on 28 May, the European Commission adopted a draft of a new strategy for energy security of the EU.
As the EU Commissioner for Energy Günther Oettinger, the strategy is based on in-depth analysis of the energy dependence of the EU Member States. The document offers a comprehensive action in eight key areas of work of the European Commission and a list of activities that must be met in the short, medium and long term in order to form an adequate response to the challenges of energy security of the EU, namely:
1 Early action aimed at improving the EU's ability to overcome the challenges associated with the possibility of disruption of energy supplies to the EU in the winter 2014/2015 years.;
2 Strengthening solidarity mechanisms and rapid response to the challenges of EU energy security, protection of critical energy infrastructure of the Community;
3 Hold the growth rate of energy consumption in the EU;
4 Development of functional and deeply integrated EU internal energy market;
5 The increase in all types of energy generation in the EU;
6 Further development of advanced technologies in the energy sector;
7 Diversification of external sources of energy and transport in the EU;
8 Increased coordination between EU countries on the formation of a national energy policy, compliance with the rules of "single voice" in external energy policy of the EU.
Thus, we consider successively, as stated in the document.
1 Early action aimed at improving the EU's ability to overcome the challenges associated with the possibility of disruption of energy supplies to the EU in the winter 2014/2015 years.
Given the events in Ukraine and the potential for disruption of Russian gas supplies to the EU in the short term, the actions of the European Commission should focus on those countries that are most dependent on one gas supplier (Eastern, South-Eastern Europe, the Baltic countries).
In preparation for the winter 2014/2015, the Commission to cooperate with regulators of the energy market and system operators GTS EU countries in order to improve the EU's readiness to possible disruptions of gas contracts. Particular attention will be given to:
- Strengthening the effectiveness of the use of gas storage infrastructure (empowerment gas storage in Latvia in order to create its strategic reserve for the Baltic Sea region);
- Development of the EU system of reverse flow (in the context of the memorandum of understanding recently signed by Slovakia and Ukraine);
- Development of regional plans of organization of energy supplies;
- Strengthening the capacity utilization of existing infrastructure capacity in the EU LNG terminals.
2 Strengthening solidarity mechanisms and rapid response to the challenges of EU energy security, protection of critical energy infrastructure Communities
2.1. Creation of oil reserves
EU countries are required to establish and maintain minimum stocks of crude oil and petroleum products to the extent necessary to meet the demand of the domestic market for 90 days. Now, in most EU countries, this is grandstanding at 120 days. Such actions will hold in equilibrium market price at the time of failure of oil supplies to the EU.
EU to further develop the international energy cooperation, especially with the new leading consumers such as China and India, and enhance the transparency of the energy market of the EU.
2.2. Preventing and responding to the risks of disruption of gas supplies
Since the time of the gas conflict in 2006 and 2009, the EU has significantly strengthened mechanisms for responding to possible disruptions of gas supplies. Investments in further strengthening these mechanisms become legal obligations: since December 2014, the EU must ensure peak gas demand even in case of failure of individual gas suppliers meet their obligations. Reversing gas flows should be organized and operate on all cross-border crossings between the EU countries.
European rules are defined protected category of consumers (primarily those that use natural gas for space heating) to be supplied with gas on a priority basis. In addition, EU countries are obliged to work out plans for training and emergency response and disruption of gas supplies in winter. Gas Coordination Group, including regulators of EU member states, has already proved its effectiveness, as a pan-European platform for exchange of information, the study of expert opinion, the development and implementation of effective rapid response to changes in the situation in the EU gas market and to protect the collective interests of all member states. The current task of the group is to prepare for the end of 2014. Regulation on security of gas supplies to the EU.
2.3. Critical Infrastructure Protection
The European Commission has begun to develop policies physical protection of critical infrastructure, including energy infrastructure. In this context, special attention should be paid to the protection of computer networks. It is planned to organize the EU wide expert discussion of the problems of protection of strategic energy objects such as transit pipelines and mains power lines.
Particular attention will be paid to the prevention of control of such infrastructure by third parties that are not members of the EU, which may aim to penetrate the energy market of the EU, the destabilization of its operation and preventing diversification under the pretext of attractive commercial infrastructure projects, etc .. Attempts to non-European operators and companies to avoid compliance with EU energy legislation carp. The main responsibility of the European Commission should be compliance with all the players of the energy market of the EU and applicable regulations.
2.4. The mechanism of solidarity among EU Member States
Under the solidarity mean practical help EU member states to reduce their vulnerability to a sudden disruption of energy supplies. In this context, the most important preparatory work required to develop plans of action in emergency situations, according to the results of the stress tests operation of energy infrastructure; broad discussion of issues between national governments and relevant agencies, regulators of EU energy markets, etc .. The objective of this work should be to ensure a minimum level of energy for each EU country. The main focus of attention in this context, the European Commission today directed to the countries of Central and South-Eastern Europe.
3 Hold the growth rate of energy consumption in the EU
Retention rate of growth of energy consumption in the EU is one of the most effective tools for reducing external energy dependence of the EU. The current situation on the borders of the EU gives more urgent need for measures to improve the energy efficiency of the EU economy by 20% by 2020, which would reduce annual energy consumption by 371 million. Tons of oil equivalent.
Achieving this goal will depend on the completeness of the implementation of the Directive on the Energy Efficiency Directive and the housing modernization. Now, the fate of the energy consumption of residential buildings in the EU in total energy consumption is 40%. Accelerate modernization, introduction of innovative technologies in district heating systems and air-conditioning will allow the EU to reduce the current levels of natural gas consumption by more than 30%.
The same pattern and with industry, where energy consumption is now 25% of total energy consumption in the EU. Significant potential for energy savings in the industry can be implemented in the event the work of the European emissions trading system for greenhouse gas emissions proposed in the framework of EU climate policy until 2030.
In order to attract private investment in this sector, in the current fiscal period, through the mechanism of distribution of EU Structural Funds, the European Commission is planning to participate in additional financing energy efficiency projects totaling $ 27 billion. Euro, and additional financing through targeted energy efficiency programs by national Governments of the EU, this figure will increase to 36 billion. euros, which should encourage private investors to implement new approaches to save energy and increase energy efficiency of production processes in enterprises.
4 Development of functional and deeply integrated EU internal energy market
EU internal energy is a key factor in the energy security of the EU and the tools to achieve it in the most economical way. Initiatives of EU governments that affect the functioning of the common EU energy - or decisions on the development of renewable, nuclear power, or the development of new infrastructure projects in the energy sector (such as the pipeline "Nord Stream", "South Stream", the Tibet Autonomous Region, the Baltic LNG terminal, and etc.) - the discussion should take place at European or regional level to ensure that the solution of one of the Member State does not undermine or affects the safety of others in the energy sector. EU energy security strategy requires that strategic decisions on how the development of the EU internal energy market were discussed at zagalevropeyskomu level.
4.1. Improving the functioning of the gas and electricity markets in the EU
EU Third Energy Framework sets requirements on the operation of the European energy market. EU heads of state agreed that the formation of the internal energy market must be completed by the end of 2014, but much remains to be done. It should be noted positive developments in the integration in regional energy markets.
Competitive and liquid market for energy already prevents abuse by suppliers that have been observed in previous periods. Well-developed mechanism for trading on the spot market allows its players to find effective solutions to short-term problems of energy security in terms of procurement of necessary volumes of oil or coal. This experience should be extended to trade in gas and electricity, to ensure availability, the transport capacity of gas pipelines and power lines.
Regional approach to be a key method of integration of the European energy market in the context of the organization of cross-border exchange of energy resources. Nordic countries (Finland, Sweden, Denmark and Norway) have demonstrated the effectiveness of this approach in the field of trade and supply of electricity in the project NordPool. Already initiated the project of integration gas and electricity markets countries of North-Western Europe (including France, Germany, Belgium, Netherlands, Luxembourg and Austria).
System operators GTS and the main electric networks, regulators of EU countries have also achieved considerable success in balancing the supply and demand for energy in several European macro-regions. So, in 2013 to balance the EU gas market was created information platform PRISMA, which allowed a 70% increase operational efficiency of gas networks of the EU countries to meet the needs of participants auction gas introduce standardized and transparent rules of the game on the spot market gas.
At the same time it should be noted a lag in the development of competition and integration of energy markets of the Baltic States and South-Eastern Europe, weakens the energy security of the countries in these regions of the EU.
4.2. Accelerating the implementation of key projects for the development of interconnections (gas, electric)
EU internal energy, apart from the general rules of its operation also requires the implementation of a significant number of projects for the development of infrastructure projects, especially cross-border interconnections between EU member states. The Commission considers that the permanent solution of this issue by 2020 will require an investment of about $ 200 billion. Euro. However, in the present circumstances the market is able to provide only 50% of the required amount of investment.
"Rules and Recommendations for the development of trans-European energy networks" have been developed by the European Commission to determine the schedule and a list of the implementation of key energy projects to ensure energy security of the EU as part of the 12 priority corridors and regions.
The first list of projects of "common interest" has been prepared by the European Commission in 2013. EU energy policy priority now is to comply with the time schedule for their implementation. In this context, the European Commission had worked out a simplified procedure for obtaining permits for their implementation, the program ConnectingEuropeFacility (CEF) on additional financing of projects allocated 5.8 billion. Euro. The total budget of the program CEFstanovit only 3% of the required $ 200 billion. Euro. However, it is designed to encourage other funds and financial instruments to participate in the implementation of new infrastructure projects.
EU energy security strategy identified 27 projects in the gas sector and the sixth field of electric power transmission as critical to the EU's energy security in the short to medium term (see. The list of projects below).
Implementation of these projects designed to enhance the diversification of suppliers and energy transportation routes in the EU. Almost half of them to be implemented until 2017, the other part of the projects to be completed until 2020. Most of the projects will be implemented in the countries of Eastern and South-Western Europe. The total cost of these projects is about 17 billion. Euro.
4.3. European oil market
The Russian Federation is one of the main suppliers of oil to refineries in the EU. Despite the availability of sufficient refining capacity, the EU remains a significant importer of petroleum products, in particular from Russia and the United States. This interdependence means that the sudden threat of disruption of oil and oil products to the EU from these countries now do not exist. At the same time there are questions that require strategic focus and coordination of the European Commission:
- The relationship between the EU refining industry of Russian oil supplies;
- Increase in the concentration of Russian capital and the presence of Russian oil companies in the oil market of the EU;
- The volume of oil products consumption in transport.
5 The increase in the generation of all forms of energy in the EU
EU can reduce its dependence on foreign energy suppliers only by developing and increasing the volume of generation and production of domestic energy resources.
5.1. The increase in energy production
Over the past 20 years, production of energy in the EU declined steadily. It is possible to slow the development of this trend in the medium term by increasing the generation of renewable and nuclear energy in the EU, increasing production of other competitive energy.
5.2. Renewable energy
Through the development of renewable energy in the EU can achieve savings in energy imports 30 billion. Euro per year. In 2012, the share of renewable energy in the total energy balance of the EU amounted to 14.1%, by 2020 this figure should rise to 20%. Later, until 2030, the Commission proposes to increase it to 27%.
According to estimates of the European Commission, in the period 2012-2020, the EU will be installed extra capacity to generate renewable thermal energy equivalent to 29 million. Tons per year of electricity - the equivalent of 39 million. Tons of oil per year. At the same time their large-scale integration into existing networks will require new and innovative solutions to address the problem of efficient management of these resources, the accumulation and storage of "green" energy, better balancing mechanism of generation and consumption, including at the regional level.
5.3. Hydrocarbons and clean coal technologies
Capacity of production of conventional oil and gas to the EU to meet all the requirements of European environmental legislation. Development projects for the production of unconventional gas in the EU may partially offset the decline in conventional gas production, provided public support for such projects and their full compliance with EU environmental legislation.
Over the past 20 years in the EU there was a decline in production and consumption of coal. However, in some EU countries, coal, lignite and subsequently retain a significant share in the generation of electricity. In general, the EU, the figure is 27%. Coal imports EU is now about 40% of total consumption.
From the position of the European Commission should, in the long term preservation of coal in the energy balance of the EU will only be possible when using technology to capture and store carbon. According to Brussels, the development of science and technology should provide an answer to the question of the effective utilization of carbon stocks and the possibility of its use as a competitive resource in the future.
6 Further development of advanced technologies in the field of energy
In the medium and long term strategy to reduce the energy dependence of the EU will require a significant correction, with the latest advances in science and technology, advanced energy technologies.
New technologies should ensure the reduction of capital-energy projects, improve energy efficiency solutions, primarily in the field of heating residential buildings, storage of renewable energy, intelligent power grid control, and the like. For the emergence of these technologies will require significant investment in research and development work. A list of these questions and issues to be considered in the framework of the policy of innovative development of the EU.
7. Diversification of external sources of energy and transport in the EU
Now 70% of the gas consumed in the EU is imported. According to the calculations of the European Commission, the volume of gas imports by 2020 will not grow, and in the period 2025-2030 will increase to 340-350 billion. Cubic meters per year.
In 2013, 39% of EU gas imported from Russia, 33% - from Norway, 22% - from North Africa (Algeria, Libya), from other sources - 4%. Volumes of LNG imports (from Qatar, Nigeria) is first increased to 20%, and further decreased to 15% due to the reorientation of suppliers to more attractive Asian markets.
The EU remains a priority to diversify and search for new gas suppliers, maintaining relationships with existing reliable gas suppliers. In this context, the share of LNG in the gas balance of the EU will grow and play a major role in the diversification of supplies. The volume of new LNG supplies to world markets, particularly in Asia, the United States, Australia, Qatar and East African countries to grow gradually, part of LNG will be supplied in the EU. Now the strategic objective of the European Commission is to ensure receipt of LNG infrastructure in all regions of the EU.
Opening the "Southern Gas Corridor" is one of the most important tasks of the diversification of gas supplies to the EU. By 2020 in the EU each year should come 10 billion. Cubic meters of gas from Azerbaijan. In addition, the Trans-Anatolian gas pipeline (TANAP) must provide access to the European gas market other players from the Middle East; total gas supplies to Europe through this pipeline will be about 25 billion. cubic meters of gas per year.
In the long term to the "Southern Gas Corridor" can be connected to countries such as Iran, Iraq, Turkmenistan, - in the case of a favorable international situation and the lifting of sanctions from individual countries. Moreover, the EU to increase its energy policy in the direction of cooperation with the countries of North Africa, the Eastern Mediterranean with a view to establishing in Southern Europe, the Mediterranean gas hub.
7.2.Uran and nuclear fuel
Generation of electricity at the plant plays an important role in ensuring energy security of the EU. The world market for nuclear fuel is a stable, balanced and well-diversified. While European companies have the technology to produce nuclear fuel, its enrichment and reprocessing, the EU remains totally dependent on imports of raw uranium.
Nuclear safety is an absolute priority for the EU. EU to remain in the future one of the leaders and the architect of nuclear safety at the international level. In this context, the European Commission to finalize changes to the Directive on nuclear safety, strengthen the independence of the market regulator of nuclear energy, to improve the awareness of the public on nuclear safety.
In Brussels, take into account the fact that Russia continues to be the main rival of European companies in the nuclear energy EU offers its customers integrated packages of investment proposals as well as the maintenance of a full nuclear cycle. In this context, the European Commission to pay special attention to projects of construction of new nuclear power plants, which will use the technology of non-European origin, in order to ensure security technologies, as well as the possibility of using alternative products producers of nuclear fuel. The ability to replace nuclear fuel supplier should be one of the main prerequisites for the construction of any nuclear power facility in the EU.
8. Increased coordination between EU countries on the formation of a national energy policy, compliance with the rules "one voice" in the EU external energy policy
Most of the activities described in the strategy point to the same priority: the need for the EU to work closely on the production of a national energy policy with other EU members. The prerogative of the EU is to determine the structure of their energy balance, but progress on the integration of markets and infrastructure of the EU countries, the total dependence of all members of the EU energy exporters require solidarity, especially in times of crisis. So, all the fundamental decisions relating to energy policy the EU Member States should be consistent with the interests of the neighboring countries within the EU.
The European Commission welcomes all initiatives of EU Member States, aimed at creating a common energy market and its integration. Now in Brussels are studying the positive experience of joint coordination mechanism for EU nuclear fuel prices (through Euratom), in order to develop such practices for EU gas market - according to the European Commission - can improve the bargaining position with suppliers of gas to the EU.
Thus, the formation of a new EU energy security strategy was a response to the European Commission to the threat of compromising the stability of energy supplies caused by the aggravation of the military-political relations between Russia and Ukraine.
The new strategy is aimed at the gradual reduction of the energy dependence of the EU on energy imports, neutralizing the impact of the current EU energy policy on the part of the leading energy suppliers, primarily Russia.
Measures to improve the EU's energy security, outlined in the strategy, designed for short-term (until 2017) and medium term (2020) perspective. According to the analysis of the document implies that short-term measures for the implementation of the EU's influence will need about 17 billion. Euro investment. Medium-term package of measures will require investment of at least $ 200 billion. Euro, which in the present circumstances, according to the authors of the strategy, 50% higher than the available investment opportunities in the EU.
A key element of the strategy is a list of 26 objects of critical energy infrastructure of the EU, most of which are located in Central and South-Eastern Europe and is scheduled for implementation by 2017, that, according to the authors of the document, will greatly enhance the level of integration of the EU energy and opportunity for all EU countries use the reversing operation of gas interconnectors, expand the list of suppliers and to diversify the routes of energy transportation in the EU.
The main emphasis in the diversification of the EU's dependence on Russian gas supplies made on a gradual increase in the consumption of LNG and the opening in 2019 "Southern Gas Corridor", increasing the volume of gas supplies to the EU from the Caspian region, the Middle East, Turkmenistan, North Africa and the Mediterranean.
The paper also reported the position of the European Commission about the prospects for the implementation of the Russian gas pipeline project "South Stream". In particular, the strategy suggests the possibility of its realization only subject to the requirements of all participants in the project of European energy legislation.
June 18, 2014
Vladislav Deyneko, Research Center for Regional Cooperation for the "Ukrainian Energy"